If you want to know what's going to happen in the economy, business and investment markets, look at population trends or demographics. If we can't see the very long term coming, at least we can observe how people are changing their way to spend money. The biggest years for births in the baby-boom generation were 1957 to 1961.

Spending on motorcycles seems to peak at age 45. Harley-Davidson started to flatten out in 2006 and declined last year. Now we are all concerned about the future. The United States looks a lot like Japan and Japan has been declining for the past 14 years. That means deflation. And if you look at Japan's economy you see a decline in prices, in value of assets and erosion of the buying power of wages.

As baby boomers move into retirement, service industries will grow. Productivity gains are more difficult to produce in those kinds of businesses than in production and technology. So what should we do? Pay down debt and save. Easier said than done. You don't want to make long-term payments on assets whose values are declining with time.

Cash becomes king in a deflationary period. The paradox: the longer we wait, more we will be able to buy. So, what about our motorcycle industry? Hard core bikers will continue to ride. Bikers who are also art lovers will still want a "state-of-the-art" custom motorcycle. And between these 2 groups? No room for motorcycle fads and "fashionistas" on 2 wheels. Discretionary money just evaporated. It's really the way I see it for a long, long time...